UFC Singapore: Holm vs. Correia Betting Guide

The UFC’s stop off in Singapore there are some interesting opportunities for fans to make some money.

It’s that time again folks. The UFC is upon us and it looks like there is some money to be made off the match-ups this weekend.

So who makes the most sense for a bet? Check out the breakdown below.

Current Record  45-27

Holly Holm -625 vs. Bethe Correia +475

Before entering the UFC and her dismantling of Ronda Rousey, Holly Holm was one of the most decorated female boxers of her era. She was a multiple-time world champion in many different organisations and defended her titles successfully 18 times. She is a two-time Ring Magazine Fighter of the year and has been described as one of the best female boxers of all time.

Bethe Correia is one of the worst fighters on the roster. She got into the sport very late at the age of 28 and has been unimpressive so far in the UFC. She is best known for being face planted on the Straight Outta Compton ad by Ronda Rousey back in 2015, and has gone 1-1-1 since.

Despite losing 3 in a row, Holly Holm is still one of the best fighters at woman’s Bantamweight. Training under Mike Winkeljohn since she was a kid, and compiling a 33-2-3 record as a professional boxer, Holm might be the best striker in woman’s MMA history.

Her ability to circle, stay on the outside and counter is what makes her such a threat to aggressive fighters like Correia and Rousey. She uses jabs and sidekicks to the body and legs while circling to keep her opponent at bay, before planting and coming back with a counter left straight when her opponents overextend.

Holly is most comfortable against aggressive opponents when she can employ her circle and counter strategy. In her fights with Germaine de Randamie and Valentina Shevchenko, she was forced to lead and thus the game plan to beat Holly Holm emerged.

When Holm is forced to lead, she comes forward with sloppy, running 1-2’s and gets lit up with counter strikes on her way in. Both Valentina and Germaine picked up on her tendency to get frustrated when forced to lead and sat back waiting for Holly to throw the 1-2 before coming back with a counter straight or in Valentina’s case a counter spinning back fist.

Although the game plan to beat Holly Holm has been discovered, Bethe Correia is not the fighter to use such a strategy. Bethe likes to use her strength and size to back her opponent down before throwing wild hooks to the head, and that’s about all she does.

Her boxing is atrocious, her kicking game is nonexistent, and she is unexplainably slow on the feet. Neither have shown good grappling ability so I expect this fight to stay on the feet where Bethe is no match for a world class boxer like Holm. On that premise, I’m taking Holm to circle, jab, and sidekick her way to an easy unanimous decision.

On that premise, I’m taking Holm to circle, jab, and sidekick her way to an easy unanimous decision.

Andrei Arlovski +208 vs. Marcin Tybura -243

 

Andrei Arlovski is undoubtedly one of the greatest Heavyweights of all time. He is a former UFC champion and has been fighting the upper echelon of the Heavyweight division his entire career. Recently, his chin has made a steep decline and he is on a four-fight losing streak since beating Frank Mir back in 2015. But that’s not going to stop “The Pitbull” from taking on one of the best prospects in the division.

Marcin Tybura lost his UFC debut against the manliest looking fighter in the UFC, Timothy Johnson, but won his next two fights impressively. His agility and dexterity for a Heavyweight is incredible, and his spectacular KO over Viktor Pesta showed how dangerous a man of his size with good leg dexterity can be.

His boxing can be sloppy at times, but is usually a patient and calculated striker. He uses lots of kicks and can set them up with combos as good as anyone in the division. Although I don’t expect this one to go to the ground, Marcin has showed suburb takedown defense and the capacity to quickly get back up once taken down.

Arlovski is years past his prime and despite a pre-USADA four-fight winning streak, recently he has been an average fighter at best. His famous overhand right can still knock anyone in the division off their feet, but with his chin vanishing and tendency to be overly aggressive, I don’t see him being able to deal with Tybura’s cautious striking. With that being said, I’m taking Tybura by 1st round KO.

Dong Hyun Kim +175 vs. Colby Covington -205

 

Dong Hyun Kim has been one of the more underappreciated fighters in the UFC, only losing to Tyron Woodley, Carlos Condit, and Demian Maia. He is a 3rd-degree black belt in Judo and has some of the best trips and throws we have ever seen inside the octagon. Kim’s usual game plan is simple. Swing wild, eat punches, and enter the clinch. Rinse and repeat. Once in the clinch he uses his significant height and

Kim’s usual game plan is simple. Swing wild, eat punches, and enter the clinch. Rinse and repeat. Once in the clinch he uses his significant height and reach advantage for a welterweight to dig knees to the head and body while looking for a trip or opportunity to drag his opponent to the mat.

Although this doesn’t work against elite fighters, lower level fighters have a hard time dealing with his reckless striking and constant pressure. If Kim could have cleaned up his boxing earlier in his career, we could be talking about an all-time great. High-level Judo like his is rarely seen in MMA, and if he could use his boxing to intelligently enter the clinch instead of running forward and risk being countered, he could be a serious contender.

At this point in his career, there is no reason to expect such a change and he will probably continue to throw 20 spinning back fists a fight and run forward with his head out hoping to catch his opponent.

Colby Covington is a former NCAA All-American and two-time PAC-10 champion wrestler who is looking to get his most high-profile win of his career. Covington is not much of a threat on the feet, but his grappling is what should have the rest of the division on their toes.

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He only uses his hands to set up a takedown and once he is wrapped around his opponent, the fight might as well be over. In his last fight against another high-level wrestler, Bryan Barberena, Colby jabbed his way into the pocket before dropping for a takedown. Although he didn’t have much success keeping Bryan down, his constant pressure and strikes from the clinch won him an easy decision.

The only problem I see with Covington’s game plan is his inclination to go for takedowns from the clinch instead of shooting for doubles and singles. This could be a huge problem for Colby considering Kim’s prowess in the clinch, but I think pressure, strength, and years of high-level grappling experience will win Covington an easy unanimous decision.

Tarec Saffiedine +220 vs. Rafael Dos Anjos -260

 

Tarec Saffiedine came into the UFC from Strikeforce as one of the best kickboxers at 170. He was the last Strikeforce welterweight champion beating Nate Marquardt at the promotion’s last event ever in my hometown of Oklahoma City. But when he came into the UFC, the skill difference was apparent and he has gone 1-3 inside the octagon.

Despite his lacklustre record, Tarec can still kickbox the socks off anyone. His leg kicks are some of the best in the game and he uses them very intelligently. Instead of hammering leg kicks Jose Aldo style, he will often counter with a leg kick, leg kick in between combos, and leg kick his opponents trailing lead leg as they retreat. He also throws what I call a “jab leg kick”. Instead of throwing his leg kicks full power he will lightly slap them on his opponents thighs and calf’s which in turn makes it harder for his opponent to catch them.

His boxing is nothing to write home about, but his cautious striking and countering ability is what had him so hyped before coming into the UFC. We have seen in the past what running at a counter striker like Tarec could end, and if he can control the pace and distance of the fight he can outstrike anyone in the division.

RDA was a middle of the pack fighter for most of his career until a big loss against Khabib Nurmagomedov. After the Khabib fight, RDA went on a three fight winning streak and eventually wiped the floor with Anthony Pettis to win the lightweight title in a shocking win. Dos Anjos was now a well-rounded fighter with some of the best Jiu Jitsu in the game and it all happened under the radar.

Despite being known for his Jiu Jitsu, since moving to Kings MMA under Master Rafael Cordeiro, he has fallen in love with his kickboxing. Dos Anjos is now known for his aggressive, high volume striking, and constant cage cutting and pressure on the feet. Once he backs his opponent to the cage he will throw a variety of strikes to the head and body, mainly with his back leg kick to the body, before taking a step back and resetting all while never letting his opponent circle away from the cage. His title fight with Pettis was the perfect example of this and had Anthony frustrated and covering up against the cage before winning a one-sided decision.

We haven’t seen much of his ground game lately, especially since he was embarrassed by Khabib on the mat, but he still has the skill and experience to dominate on top. When backing your opponent to the cage like he does, it makes takedowns much easier, and once he is on top, he is aggressive with his ground and pound from any position and the threat of a submission is always there.

Dos Anjos is the aggressive, cage cutting striker who is willing to take a punch to give a punch, while Saffiedine is the patient counter striker who is willing to sit back and chop your legs to oblivion to take a boring decision. Both game plans play into each other perfectly and there is a high chance for a stalemate of a fight. With that, I think Dos Anjos’ pressure and cage cutting will be too much for Tarec and I expect for Tarec to be backing down, circling away for most of the fight before being knocked out in the 3rd.

Quick Picks

Takanori Gomi +240 vs. Jon Tuck -280

Cyril Asker +275 vs. Walt Harris -335

Yuta Sasaki +395 vs. Justin Scoggins -510

Frank Camacho +345 vs. Jingliang Li -415

Russell Doane +117 vs. Kwan Ho Kwak -137

Carls John de Tomas +250 vs. Naoki Inoue -300

Lucie Pudilova -150 vs. Ji Yeon Kim +130

Rolando Dy +240 vs. Alex Caceres -280

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